A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
